The Future Demand and Supply of Critical Minerals

This essay explores the future of global supply and demand for critical metals, and how international markets could adapt in the face of potential changes. Whereas demand is expected to increase rapidly due to accelerated electrification and the growing need for grid-scale electricity storage, increased supply through new mining projects will take time and deliberation, and will need to address a range of environmental and social challenges. Beyond primary extraction, the existing concentration of production and refining within a small number of countries will also create new challenges for supply chain security. Three significant insights emerge: more global transparency and accountability are needed to safeguard environmentally and socially responsible mining as the industry grows; large-scale recycling of minerals and metals is needed to lessen the demand for primary mineral extraction; rapid technological innovation, including the development of new batteries, is needed to shift demand towards less expensive, less scarce and potentially less harmful materials. Governments can play an important role in addressing negative externalities associated with increased mining, while ensuring that future economic benefits from mineral resources are used to support broader societal goals, including reconciliation with Indigenous communities—at home and abroad.